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MillimeterWhere's That Better Mousetrap?
Jul 1, 2003 12:00 PM, By Pete Putman, CTS
Sidebars
Mixed Parentage
Is plasma becoming old hat already?
By the time you read this, Infocomm will have come and gone. There wasn't too much in the way of real groundbreaking display technology seen at the show, other than some new, larger LCD monitors, next-generation plasma, and some cool video scaling devices. Right now, the main concern of the market seems to be finding out what combination of prices and features will stimulate a sluggish marketplace.
 DuPont's OLED-based Olight displays will find their way into everything from automobile dashboards to portable TVs. |
In the meantime, there have been several line shows this spring and one product brand announcement of interest. In early April, DuPont held a press conference in New York City to announce its branding of a new display product based on organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs). The new brand, Olight, will cover a wide range of OLED-based displays for everything from car dashboards to portable TVs.
The Olight brand is the result of a new DuPont venture, Dupont Displays, based in Santa Barbara, Calif. In partnership with RiTdisplay of Taiwan, DuPont will roll out a range of passive and active OLED displays over the next few years, many of which could wind up in products you buy, including camera viewfinders, video monitors, PDAs, cell phones, and notebook computers.
And just what the heck is an OLED, anyway? Basically, it's a low-voltage (2V to 10V dc) display technology that uses organic films sandwiched between an anode and cathode (the diode part) to produce red, green, and blue light. And the response of OLEDs is similar to that of a cathode-ray tube (CRT) in that brightness increases with current flow.
In contrast, plasma display panels (PDPs) require much higher voltages and pulse-width modulation (PWM) to fire and sustain pixels. TFT LCD displays bypass the PWM problem, but they have a tough time achieving as much brightness due to polarized light loss, and they still have problems switching fast enough to handle fast video refresh rates.
OLEDs are also thinner than any other flatscreen technology. I've seen samples less than 2in. thick, and some prototypes can actually flex without breaking. In fact, DuPont's long-term goals for OLEDs involve the use of plastic substrates and eventually roll-to-roll manufacturing processes. (Imagine printing your own displays!)
For now, the most promising and largest market for OLEDs is that for small, handheld electronic devices. There are hundreds of millions of these gadgets out there that need bright, contrasty color displays, and in a happy coincidence, the smallest OLED screens will be the easiest to manufacture. In the past year, I've spotted quarter VGA (320×240) to SVGA (800×600) and even WXGA (1280×768) OLEDs, and prototypes of screens up to 20in. have been publicly demonstrated at venues including CES and SID.
Like Moths to the Flame
There's still plenty of interest in less exotic display technologies, and one in particular that continues to attract manufacturers with its siren song is Liquid Crystal on Silicon (LCoS). You may not notice, but a lot of LCoS is in daily use, primarily in small electronic screens. Near-to-eye displays, such as VR goggles, use them, as do some cell phones.
But these displays are typically low resolution (quarter VGA, or 320×240 pixels). In contrast, the LCoS panels that have been used in rear-projection TV sets the past few years have all been high-resolution silicon, typically 1280×720 pixels or more in sizes ranging from .7in. to .9in. diagonal. And it is these panels that have proven difficult to manufacture with practical yields.
 The rich colors and deep blacks in Panasonic's 42in. TH-42PWD6UY (shown at Infocomm 2003) help prove that plasma may stay in the market place a long time, especially if prices drop. |
JVC has been baking LCoS for more than a decade, and you'll recognize its implementation as the D-ILA (Direct Drive Image Light Amplifier). D-ILA panels with 1365×1024 resolution (SXGA) are the heart of most of JVC's front projectors, and a new QXGA (2048×1536) panel is the key component in the QX-1 high-resolution projector.
But LCoS hasn't fared as well in consumer applications. Remember JVC's D'Ahlia RPTV? Samsung's FeLCD? RCA's Scenium L5000? All three used LCoS panels from JVC, DisplayTech, and Three-Five Systems, respectively. All three had impressive press debuts and made good pictures, but not one is still in production. JVC returned to tubes and plasma, while Samsung and RCA made separate deals with Texas Instruments to sell DLP-engined RPTVs that they could actually deliver at a reasonable price.
Now there are more players on the LCoS scene. Last fall, Toshiba announced a 57in. RPTV using 1920×1080 pixel LCoS panels, manufactured by Hitachi. This product got a model number at CES 2003 (57HLX82) and a price ($9K), but I've heard it has sold less than 500 units since then, and a recent (late June) spot check on the Internet showed one dealer offering it for less than $6,000. The LCoS Hitachi panels also popped up in 2002 in front projectors made by Sanyo and Hitachi, but neither model appeared at the recent NAB show (although Hitachi did show its version at Infocomm).
At the Mitsubishi 2003-4 line show, held in late April in Dallas, reporters were treated to the sight of an 82in. 1920×1080 RPTV, using (what else?) LCoS imaging. This enormous (and I do mean enormous) TV goes by the name Alpha, and will retail for $20,999. From all accounts, the LCoS panels in this set also come out of the Hitachi factory and would be subject to the same yield constraints that everyone else has run up hard against. That is, unless Hitachi has some black magic up its sleeves.
Interestingly enough, Hitachi does not sell an RPTV using its own panels as of yet, probably due to a combination of high device cost and low yields. As for Mitsubishi's Alpha, $21K is an awful lot of money to pay for a RPTV (that much money will buy you two 50in. plasma monitors!), and the feeling here is that the Alpha is more of a technology statement than anything else. I would be surprised if this product stayed in the Mitsubishi product line for very long.
The RPTV imaging field even gets more mixed up with Sanyo's NAB technology demo of the HD-10, a four-lamp installation LCD projector that uses new 1.65in. 1920×1080 polysilicon panels, presumably made by Sony. Yields on polysilicon have been noticeably higher than that of LCoS over the past decade, and the availability of “HD” polysilicon may discourage other manufacturers from trying to tame the LCoS bucking bronco. How long before Sony comes out with a 1080p RPTV of its own?
Why is Sony also showing the “SXRD” front projector with 1920×1080 resolution? No one has actually seen this box, as it is disguised in its public appearances by a large generic wooden cover with exhaust fans. Could this be another product based on the Hitachi LCoS panels? (Sony and Hitachi already have a business relationship in plasma, so draw your own conclusions.)
And digital light-processing technology will have a hand in the future of LCoS imaging, too. Just as the 1280×720 Mustang/DDR DMDs cut the legs out from under the FeLCD and L-5000 products, a higher-resolution 1920×1080 DMD might rain on the LCoS parade — that is, if Texas Instruments decides to manufacture its new HD chip for consumer RPTVs.
With tiny cell gaps and a complex manufacturing process, LCoS is not for the faint of heart. There are some companies in China making LCoS for sub-$4K consumer TVs, but the image quality is not up to par yet. So far, consumer TV manufacturers are 0-for-3 in their efforts to bring high-resolution LCoS imaging to the masses. Will Toshiba and Mitsubishi succeed? My guess is that they, too, will turn away from LCoS in the future to something a bit more predictable and reasonably priced.
It's a Zoo Out There
Earlier this year, I predicted price erosion for small flat-panel displays, primarily plasma. Those predictions have come to pass, and it's now possible to purchase 32in. and 42in. panels with integrated TV tuners for less than $3000. These panels are primarily coming out of the Fujitsu-Hitachi (32in.) and Samsung/LG (42in.) factories. The 32in. panels have a native resolution of 852×1024 pixels and use the ALiS scan system, while the 42in. SDTV models have 852×480 pixels.
Not surprisingly, a recently released study from Pacific Media Associates shows strong growth in sales of sub-40in. screen sizes from October of 2002 to February of 2003. During that time, sub-40in. panels accounted for 22% of all plasma sales, with about 50% of those panels being sold by Sony (the PFM-32C1 and its consumer variants).
I believe those numbers will climb even higher as panel prices continue to drop. Have we reached the basement yet? Not by a long shot. Even though profit margins will be squeezed, there are plenty of manufacturers and OEMs who want to get into the flat-panel game and are prepared to slash prices to do it. We may very well see $1,999 42in. SDTV plasma monitors by year's end, and you can buy 50in. second-generation plasma for less than $7,000 now. Even 60in. glass is available for around $10K.
Manufacturers of TFT LCD monitors and integrated TVs have a bit more catching up to do. Right now, there's about a 3X cost premium with TFT LCD over plasma. However, the backlight sources in LCD monitors are expected to last much longer than the average plasma monitor (I've seen claims of 50,000 to 60,000 hours), so perhaps there is no real savings with PDPs overall.
Regardless of this pandemonium, you'll benefit in the long run. A 42in. panel once was a major capital expense at $10K. At $5K, that same panel began to look a lot more attractive. At $2500, it's not even worth debating such things as panel life — the panel will completely depreciate in just a few years, and you'll be on to some other product (maybe even an OLED monitor).
For more info on the PMA plasma market study, contact Pacific Media Associates, 1060 Siskiyou Drive, Menlo Park, Calif., 94025, (650) 561-9020 (voice), (650) 561-9019 (fax), www.pacificmediaassociates.com.
Pete Putman is president of Roam Consulting Inc., Doylestown, Pa. He can be reached at vspete@projectorexpert.com.
Sidebar
Mixed Parentage
A LOT OF COMPANIES SELL PLASMA monitors, but who actually manufactures the stuff? (I get a lot of email on this question.) Read on, and you'll learn about the plasma family trees:
If your panel comes in a 32in. size with 852×1024 pixels, or a 42in. size with 1024×1024 pixels, then it was made in the Fujitsu-Hitachi factory in Kyushu, Japan. These panels are sold by numerous companies and usually include the term “ALiS” in their literature. (ALiS stands for Alternate Lighting of Surfaces, a segmented progressive-scan system that also conserves power.)
If you have a 42in. panel with 852×480 pixels, and all of the pixels are symmetrical in size, then it usually comes from Korea (either Samsung or LG), or it could be Fujitsu glass. If the panel has asymmetrical blue pixels (larger than the red and green), then Matsushita (Panasonic) built it. If the panel has 853×480 pixels, then NEC manufactured it.
There are also 42in. XGA panels with 1024×768 pixels (non-square) that are made by Matsushita (Panasonic) and NEC. Most of the panels that are being OEM'ed are of NEC heritage, though. Does your 1024×768 PDP measure 43in? Then Pioneer made it. By the way, those 46in. 852×480 panels popping up lately are based on an old Mitsubishi design and are hand-rolled in Taiwan and China by CPT.
Got a 50in. plasma? If it has 1365×768 pixels, it comes from NEC. If it has 1366×768 pixels and they're all symmetrical, it was probably made by LG or Samsung. If the blue pixel is larger, it's a Matsushita (Panasonic) product. And if the pixel count is 1280×768, then you've got a PDP that started out on the Pioneer assembly line.
See any 60in. PDPs with 1280×720 pixels lately? They're from LG in Korea, while the 61in. panels sold by many companies all originated in the NEC factory and have 1365×768 pixel resolution. And the world's largest plasma (63in.) is a Samsung specialty, sporting 1366×768 pixels.
There are also some oddball sizes out there unique to manufacturers and not OEM'ed (to my knowledge). Examples include Panasonic's 37in. 16:9 852×480 panel, Hitachi's 37in. 1024×768 square-pixel (4×3) offering, and Pioneer's 40in. 4:3 640×480 PDP.
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